Baltic

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 81

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

Place Prob

11%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Monmouth Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-08-15	Delaware Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-16	Monmouth Park	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-04-17	Laurel Park	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-03-15	Laurel Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-01-15	Charles Town	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/11/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	67%	-0.15
19/12/2025	3rd	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10
15/01/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	86%	+0.07
15/03/2026	5th	10/1	47%	20%	-0.27
17/04/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	86%	+0.38
16/05/2026	2nd	7/1	63%	88%	+0.24
15/08/2026	1st	6/5	94%	100%	+0.06
12/09/2026	4th	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18