12
Candied Up
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 71
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 20/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |