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4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 76

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Laurel Park 14/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 68 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 68 par14/09C7OR 68C7 @ Laurel Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 68 · 6f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 68 parC7 @ Laurel Park 15/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 69 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 69 par15/11C7OR 69C8 @ Laurel Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Laurel Park 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 70 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 70 par7/06C8OR 70C5 @ Colonial Downs 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 76 · 5f110y Yie 122 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par25/07C8OR 76C8 @ Colonial Downs 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 5f 122 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Laurel Park 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 78 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 78 par11/09C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-28Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-07-25Colonial Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-07-11Colonial Downs?4th0th+3
2026-06-07Laurel Park?5th5th0
2026-04-24Laurel Park?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0924/0425/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20253rd15/261%78%+0.17
04/10/20258th14/126%13%-0.14
15/11/202510th33/10%0%0.00
24/04/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
07/06/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
11/07/20264th25/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
28/08/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
11/09/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52