7
Hoppetosse
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |