Master Nibbles

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71

Laurel Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.8

Today:

Class gap: -0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Delaware Park	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-08-20	Delaware Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-07-19	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-27	Laurel Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-13	Laurel Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-05-23	Laurel Park	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength33%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/05/2026	4th	16/1	16%	25%	+0.09
13/06/2026	6th	40/1	0%	55%	+0.55
27/06/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	71%	+0.14
19/07/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
20/08/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11
19/09/2026	9th	14/1	26%	11%	-0.15