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3

Ayni

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 72

Laurel Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS15/08C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 76 par30/08C6OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Colonial Downs?2nd-1th+3
2026-08-15Colonial Downs?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +44.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20264th5/287%40%-0.47
30/08/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02