7
Derz Smart
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 60
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 26/04/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 14/06/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 11/07/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 08/08/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 64% | -0.26 |
| 14/05/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |