IvyArcIvyArc
2

Katie's Notion

8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87

Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pimlico 16/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 96 · 5f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 96 par16/05C5OR 96C5 @ Laurel Park 14/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 94 · 5f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/06/2025 · OR 94 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 16/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 94 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark16/07/2025 · OR 94 par16/07C8OR 94C8 @ Monmouth Park 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 95 · 5f110y Fm 121 · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 95 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 29/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 92 par29/08C8OR 92C7 @ Laurel Park 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Laurel Park 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 97 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 97 par11/10C5OR 97C7 @ Laurel Park 31/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 95 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 95 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 89 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 89 par5/09C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Colonial Downs?5th6th−1
2025-10-31Laurel Park?6th6th0
2025-10-11Laurel Park?5th3rd+2
2025-09-19Laurel Park?4th4th0
2025-08-29Colonial Downs?1st2nd−1
2025-08-16Monmouth Park?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0516/0811/105/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20258th11/271%30%-0.41
14/06/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
16/07/20254th20/10%67%+0.67
16/08/20257th10/147%25%-0.22
29/08/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
19/09/20254th20/10%50%+0.50
11/10/20255th33/10%20%+0.20
31/10/20256th10/147%50%+0.03
05/09/20265th16/116%56%+0.40