12
Noble Jon
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 90
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Meadowlands | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 36% | -0.45 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |