Chilly Girl
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 76
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |