5
Last Gift
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 76
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |