Mila Candy

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80

Laurel Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-05	Colonial Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-08-27	Colonial Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-08-07	Colonial Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-07-19	Colonial Downs	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-06-06	Saratoga	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-05-09	Belmont At The Big A	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength42%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/09/2025	2nd	7/2	82%	80%	-0.02
06/11/2025	10th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
13/03/2026	6th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
09/05/2026	6th	14/1	26%	29%	+0.02
06/06/2026	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
19/07/2026	1st	3/10	98%	100%	+0.02
07/08/2026	5th	5/4	93%	33%	-0.60
27/08/2026	4th	15/2	61%	50%	-0.11
05/09/2026	7th	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88