5
Sugar Bush
2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 50
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +36.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |