IvyArcIvyArc
4

Parisienne

2yo Filly · 8-12

Lyon La Soie · Prix De Luneau Claiming Stakes - Awt · 1m 208y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 1237/09C52 @ Salon-De-Provence 25/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 117 · HIGHER CLASS25/092projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Salon-De-Provence25th2nd+3
2026-09-07Saint-Cloud?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -37.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20266th22/10%38%+0.38
25/09/20265th20/10%0%0.00