5
Momo Nelson
7yo Gelding · 8-13
Lyon La Soie · Prix De La Cepiere Handicap - Awt · 1m 2f 151y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 04/02/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 23% | -0.30 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 53% | -0.10 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |