2
Mowgli
6yo Gelding · 9-3
Lyon La Soie · Prix De La Cepiere Handicap - Awt · 1m 2f 151y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Strasbourg | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Compiegne | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 30/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 17/04/2026 | 13th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 19/07/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 23% | -0.24 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 46% | +0.04 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 79% | -0.03 |