3
Mr Harpin
4yo Gelding · 9-3
Lyon La Soie · Prix De La Cepiere Handicap - Awt · 1m 2f 151y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 20/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 31% | -0.27 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 9/4 | 88% | 9% | -0.79 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 03/09/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |