7
Hollywood Africans
7yo Gelding · 8-8
Lyon La Soie · Prix De Villeurbanne Claiming Stakes - Awt · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Marseille | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 23/01/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.40 |
| 10/02/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 44% | -0.40 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 18% | -0.50 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |