Machete
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 82
Lyon La Soie · Prix De Villeurbanne Claiming Stakes - Awt · 1m 3f 204y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 06/09/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |