5
Capman Fal
4yo Filly · 8-8
Lyon La Soie · Prix Des Jeunes Stakes - Awt · 1m 3f 204y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strasbourg | 2 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -8.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 21% | -0.05 |
| 18/04/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 08/05/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.38 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |