4
Freeze
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Lyon La Soie · Prix Des Jeunes Stakes - Awt · 1m 3f 204y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Strasbourg | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Deauville | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -9.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 05/12/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 06/02/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 40% | -0.15 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |