1
Howabouthatnow
4yo Gelding · 9-4
Lyon La Soie · Prix Des Jeunes Stakes - Awt · 1m 3f 204y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 24/02/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/07/2026 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/08/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 22/09/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |