4
Le Roi Margot
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Saponaires - Monte · 1m 6f 200y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Feurs | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Marseille-borely | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Salon-De-Provence | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Feurs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.36 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 03/03/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.04 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |