8
Lotus Zen
5yo Gelding · 10-3
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Saponaires - Monte · 1m 6f 200y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +4.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Enghien | 1 | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Enghien | 1 | +4 | ||
| 2026-02-20 | Vincennes | 1 | +4 | ||
| 2026-02-01 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 27/05/2025 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/01/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |