13
Nelson D'hermes
3yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Petunias - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#11
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 7
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 7 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |