16
Ma Felicite
4yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Lotus - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Hyeres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-16 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-04 | Marseille | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 69% | +0.09 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 04/12/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 23/12/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |