2
Mamzelle Carless
4yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Lotus - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Hyeres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hyeres | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Marseille-borely | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-07 | Cavaillon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |