10
Merkel De Curbins
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Lotus - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#6
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Feurs | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Marseille-borely | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |