5
Mogador
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Lotus - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#8
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Toulouse | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Caen | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Les Sables | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-16 | Enghien | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-12 | Graignes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 15/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 18/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |