4
Lilly De Gouye
5yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Camelias - Prix Geny Courses - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#8
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-10 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 100/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 03/02/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 27/08/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |