11
Lutece Smart
5yo Filly · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Camelias - Prix Geny Courses - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-27 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hyeres | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-03 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 26/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 04/12/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 05/01/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 29/01/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 03/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |