6
Lucifer
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Azalees - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Marseille-borely | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Marseille-borely | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 18/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 22/09/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |