12
Jarnac De L'iton
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Orchidees - Attele · 1m 3f 95y
#3
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Marseille-borely | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Marseille-borely | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Marseille-borely | 7 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Marseille-borely | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 22/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |