11
Gregor
10yo Gelding · 0-0
Marseille-borely · Prix Des Ursinias - Attele · 1m 6f 200y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 1 | +1 | ||
| 2026-01-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/04/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 10/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 23/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 08/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/01/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |