4
Big Lous Messenger
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 52
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2024 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 06/02/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |