9
Point To That Star
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 63
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength79%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Meadowlands | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-09-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 36% | -0.29 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 82% | -0.09 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |