2
Red Hot Catalina
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 62
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |