4
Daring Leader
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 42y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |