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8

Millbuie

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 48

Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 42y

#5

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden but placed for the fifth time this season when second of 7 in handicap at Hamilton (1m, soft) 11 days ago. Ought to be thereabouts again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 46 · 1m1f20y Goo 117 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 46 par5/056OR 466 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 45 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m68y Goo 123 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 45 par10/066OR 456 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 48 · 1m Goo 118 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 48 par13/076OR 486 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 49 par10/086OR 496 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m2f43y Std 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 48 · 1m68y Sft 128 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 48 par21/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton62nd2nd0
2026-09-02Newcastle66th6th0
2026-08-10Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-07-31Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-07-13Ayr67th7th0
2026-07-05Ayr63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/055/0710/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/05/20266th18/15%50%+0.45
02/06/20263rd16/116%83%+0.68
10/06/202610th16/116%10%-0.06
05/07/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
13/07/20267th6/168%25%-0.43
31/07/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
10/08/20263rd11/486%78%-0.08
02/09/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
21/09/20262nd17/255%83%+0.28