9
Sovereign Bright
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 50
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 42y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Musselburgh | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 13/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |