We've Got This
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 59
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 2f 42y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Pontefract | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 77% | +0.22 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |