5
Bergamo Gold
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 58
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |