IvyArcIvyArc
4

Haltonwood

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 59

Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sottsass gelding who doesn't look an easy ride but has posted solid efforts to make the frame in handicaps at Doncaster and Wetherby in early summer. Back from a break here having had a breathing operation and no forlorn hope.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 24/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m5y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS24/0244 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0344 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS18/0446 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f213y GS 129 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 59 par16/056OR 596 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 1m2f Goo 130 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 60 par4/066OR 60projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-04Wetherby63rd3rd0
2026-05-16Doncaster64th4th0
2026-04-18Thirsk49th7th+2
2026-03-21Newcastle44th2nd+2
2026-02-24Newcastle45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0221/0318/0416/054/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/02/20265th66/10%56%+0.56
21/03/20264th40/10%57%+0.57
18/04/20269th125/10%38%+0.38
16/05/20264th33/10%77%+0.77
04/06/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51