He's Our Cracker
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 57
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Catterick | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 15% | -0.61 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 42% | -0.00 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |