3
Hill O Rue
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 56
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |