7
Kameel
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 51
Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |