Mystic Wave

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 45

Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼2

Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 6

Class gap: +2.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Newcastle	4	9th	7th	+2	3.4
2026-08-20	Newcastle	4	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2026-07-29	Redcar	4	7th	5th	+2	5.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength19%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/07/2026	7th	250/1	0%	0%	0.00
20/08/2026	8th	250/1	0%	13%	+0.13
02/09/2026	9th	300/1	0%	11%	+0.11