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6

Tiberio Force

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 52

Newcastle · Henry Malone 1926 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 2f 42y

#8

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways in Ripon classified event (1¼m) in August and backed it up with a good third of 12 in handicap at Beverley (1¼m, good to firm) 10 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m2f1y Goo 132 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 52 par27/106OR 526 @ Wolverhampton 01/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 51 · 1m1f104y Std 126 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 51 par5 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m1f170y Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 50 par8/055OR 505 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 50 · 1m1f170y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f1y Goo 130 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 50 par25/056OR 506 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f42y Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m1f170y Goo 126 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 45 par15/086OR 456 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 44 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 52 · 1m1f207y Gd 135 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 52 par22/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley63rd3rd0
2026-08-31Ripon61st1st0
2026-08-15Ripon69th9th0
2026-07-31Newcastle68th8th0
2026-05-25Redcar67th7th0
2026-05-17Ripon56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1017/0515/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20259th12/137%33%-0.04
01/12/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
08/05/20266th80/10%55%+0.55
17/05/20266th22/10%50%+0.50
25/05/20267th5/174%45%-0.28
31/07/20268th11/142%22%-0.20
15/08/20269th25/10%33%+0.33
31/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
22/09/20263rd15/261%82%+0.21