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Callisterra

2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 64

Newcastle · H. Malone & Sons 100th Anniversary Nursery · 7f 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Kodi Bear filly who has been placed on her last 3 runs, posting a solid third of 13 in novice at Thirsk (6f, good to soft) 27 days ago. Makes tapeta/handicap debut with more needed at these weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0545 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f217y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/0655 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS22/0852 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 64 par5/092OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk23rd-2th+4
2026-08-22Redcar53rd2nd+1
2026-06-20Redcar52nd1st+1
2026-05-16Thirsk45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0520/0622/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
20/06/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
22/08/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
05/09/20263rd11/271%83%+0.12