9

Kaiulani Spirit

2yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 51

Newcastle · H. Malone & Sons 100th Anniversary Nursery · 7f 14y

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to offer much promise in 5 outings, tried in different headgear when ninth of 11 in 6f nursery here 30 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0635 @ Leicester 25/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS25/0655 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS15/0756 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 57 · 5f Goo 127 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 57 par13/086OR 576 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 54 · 6f1y Std 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par2/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle69th9th0
2026-08-13Beverley69th9th0
2026-07-15Catterick55th4th+1
2026-06-25Leicester57th6th+1
2026-06-09Carlisle36th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0625/0615/0713/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20266th40/10%29%+0.29
25/06/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
15/07/20265th100/10%56%+0.56
13/08/20269th11/142%11%-0.31
02/09/20269th40/10%20%+0.20